Lifestyle

The Trend Scenario shows that the percentage of Dutch people aged 18 years and over who smoke will decrease from 25 percent in 2015 (3.3 million adults) to 14 percent in 2040 (2.0 million adults). The majority of these smokers smoke daily but the figures also include people who smoke less frequently. The percentage of people who smoke daily will decrease from 19 percent in 2015 to 9 percent in 2040. 

This Trend Scenario analyses trends for the period 1990-2015, and projects them into the future for various age groups aged 18 years and over. In this period, the percentage of adult smokers decreased significantly, but over the last few years this decreasing trend appears to be stabilising. On the other hand, the percentage of smokers among secondary school students has fallen steeply over the last few years. As two thirds of smokers start smoking before they are 18 years old, the drop in student smokers supports the decreasing trend in the Trend Scenario.

The Trend Scenario shows that the percentage of smokers will fall in all age groups, with the steepest fall among 18-24-year-olds. In this age group the percentage of smokers will fall from 31 percent in 2015 to 19 percent in 2040, a decrease of 12 percentage points. In the age group 25-64-year-olds this decrease will be 11 percentage points and for the group aged 65 and over it will be 7 percentage points. Among secondary school students too, the percentage of smokers has fallen over the last few years. In 2003, 18.9 percent had smoked in the last month. In 2011 this figure was 16.9 percent and in 2015 it was 10.6 percent. The percentage of students who smoked daily fell between 2003 and 2015 from 8.5 percent to 3.1 percent (not shown in graph). Two thirds of smokers start smoking before they are 18 years old.

The Trend Scenario shows that the percentage of people who have a BMI of 25 or over will increase among 18-24-year-olds as well as 25-64-year-olds and people aged 65 and over. The increase in the percentage of people who are overweight will be roughly the same in all these groups: it will rise from 50 percent in 2015 to 62 percent in 2040 among 25-64-year-olds (an increase of 12 percentage points). Among young adults too there will be an increase of 12 percentage points, and the increase among older people will be 11 percentage points. Relative to other age groups, the percentage of older people who are overweight will remain the highest. This goes for both moderate overweight (25≤BMI<30) and severe overweight or obesity (BMI≥30) (not shown in graph). This projection shows that overweight is increasing not only because we as a population are getting older but also because there is an increase in each age group. The increasing overweight among the younger generations will also contribute to extra overweight among future generations of adults and the elderly.

In the Trend Scenario, the percentage of people aged 20 years and over who meet the Dutch Standard for Healthy Exercise will increase from 62 percent in 2015 to 68 percent in 2030. The main reason for this increase is the rise in the percentage of people aged 60 and over who met the exercise standard between 2001 and 2014 (not shown in graph). Adults meet this standard if they are moderately intensively physically active on at least five days a week for at least half an hour (brisk walking, cycling or gardening). The exercise standard for older people (55+) is the same, but the physical activity may be less intensive (for example walking or cycling).

The Dutch Standard for Healthy Exercise provides an indication of the exercise patterns of people but does not provide a complete picture. For example, somebody may meet the standard but still have a(n unhealthy) sedentary lifestyle. This projection uses figures from the Sport Foresight study. This study has projections as far as 2030: the time horizon therefore differs from that of the other projections in this Trend Scenario.

In 2016, 8.8% of people aged 18 and over drank excessive amounts of alcohol: 10.4% of men and 7.3% of women. Excessive drinking is defined as drinking more than 21 glasses of alcohol per week for men or more than 14 glasses per week for women. A similar group of adults were heavy drinkers in 2016: 8.5% of people aged 18 and over drank at least four (women) or six (men) glasses of alcohol once a week (not shown in graph). The trend in excessive or heavy alcohol consumption in the past is unclear because of changes made to measurement methods. So the future developments in alcohol consumption are also uncertain.

There is growing evidence that the duration and quality of our sleep are related to various aspects of health, such as depression, cardiovascular disease, diabetes and overweight. Over the past 25 years, the average sleep duration of Dutch adults has not changed. This conclusion is based on a meta-analysis of data from 34 Dutch studies. Future developments in sleep duration are uncertain.

Different societal developments might affect the duration of our sleep. The 24-hour economy and digitization (screen time, blue light, continuous stimuli) may hamper sleep quality and duration. However, the sleep duration trend data do not reflect such effects. It is possible that these developments have an effect on sleep quality. The meta-analysis shows that 10-23 percent of Dutch adults experience difficulties with falling asleep, 9-20 percent do not sleep through the night, and 10-23 percent wake up earlier than they would like to. 13-57 percent do not feel well rested when they wake up. These percentages differ between age groups. There are no trend data on sleep quality.